Hi Tribe,
It’s been a long week, and we’re not even a full seven days out from the election. I’m sure many of you have found the news cycle as dizzying, confusing, and spastic as I have, and perhaps are left feeling like we’re on sinking ground.
Many of the events that transpired this week I anticipated. Due to the unprecedented number of people voting by mail, it was always unlikely that we would have an immediate result as most Americans have grown accustomed to. Many states compounded this predictable problem by refusing to allow votes received by mail to be counted before the election. Notably, key battleground states were among those with that stance. You can look at this map here to see a better breakdown.
And then there was the Pennsylvania problem. Shortly before the election, the state’s supreme court determined that mail in ballots could be received and counted upon arrival as long as they were received by November 6th - no matter what date the postmark showed. Republicans appealed that decision to the U.S. Supreme Court, which took the peculiar approach of punting the issue to after the election.
Basically, SCOTUS refused to hear the case at that time, but left open the option of reviewing it post-election should it come to matter. Meaning that if the number of mail-in ballots received post election day were enough to alter the election results than the high court may choose to take up the issue.
This is why the Trump campaign has hinged its hopes on litigation in the state. Given the solidified math of the electoral college, there is no pathway to victory for Trump without the Keystone State. And, as is true in many states, Trump was ahead on election day in Pennsylvania before the bulk of mail-in ballots began to be counted.
This was also predictable. Democrats are always more likely to vote by mail. They put more trust in our systems, after all. And in the era of COVID-19, those on the left have expressed a greater level of fear than those on the right - leading them to choose a voting option that allowed them to stay away from crowds.
What this means is Biden needed to decisively win the electoral college without Pennsylvania in order for his win to be concrete. Of the swing states still being counted - Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Georgia, Biden needed only one to clench the 270 needed votes. Trump, on the underhand needed four with Pennsylvania an essential in that makeup.
While Trump is pursuing recounts in some states, namely Wisconsin, it is unlikely these processes will show a difference capable of making up the 20,000 vote difference between him and Biden. The last recount in Wisconsin was done by Green Party Jill Stein’s team in 2016 and yielded a difference of only 131 ballots out of 3 million votes, as one example. Recounts can make a difference when the gap is a couple hundred or even thousand votes. None come to mind that have flipped a verdict with tens of thousands of votes between the candidates’ totals.
Yesterday, with Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Arizona all being called for Biden he was named President-Elect by the media and by most in the country. While Pennsylvania’s litigation issue remains in the background, Biden does not need the state to win - meaning SCOTUS is unlikely to even take up the case.
Biden is also up an eye-popping 5 million votes in the popular election, which though it does not control the final outcome, will likely make courts more hesitant to upset his victory. Courts operate differently than other political entities and typically place great weight on not overturning norms or upsetting the status quo.
Ultimately, it isn’t all over until the fat lady sings on December 14th, when state electors meet to actually place their votes. Trump is free to pursue his recounts and litigation until then, but it does seem highly unlikely he would be successful in his strategies across any of these states, much less in four of them.
Furthermore, the rhetoric by Trump and his campaign insinuating voter fraud without evidence is highly alarming and damaging to our very foundations. I’m deeply disturbed by his baseless claims and the naivete displayed by his supporters in this regard. Legitimate claims of fraud should be investigated, but only when there is concrete evidence. That has not been even remotely produced by this administration and ultimately their talking points seem intended to erode trust in our systems. That’s the fraud I’m currently more concerned by.
In any election we experience some level of fraud. But it is not the massive conspiracy too many on the right buy into and spread. As already expressed, when fraud is discovered it should be dealt with, but ultimately we’ve never seen legitimate cases where these actions came anywhere close to swinging an election - even down ballot, much less for the presidency. Overall, Republicans sound as desperate with this story as Democrats did with Russiagate in 2016.
Instead of blaming fraud, both parties would be better served to spend some time in introspection and developing self-awareness. Both remain deeply unpopular with voters and neither seem to be hitting the mark on platforms that Americans would actually be proud to support.
Currently, it seems pretty certain that we will be hosting a Biden/Harris ticket in the White House for the next four years. If the senate stays Republican (dependent on two run-off races in Georgia), we’ll be looking at a divided government. The mandate appears to be that the country wants Trump out but also wants to block Democrats from passing their policies, not the worst outcome by far in my book. As a good friend said to me recently, gridlock is the second best outcome to liberty.
Then again, this is 2020 and crazier things have happened.
Great write up.
I understand Republican voters being disillusioned with the system and our election given how Trump has reacted. But like you said, it's disturbing to see without any kind of evidence. I do give credit to a lot of Conservative press and politicians not buying into Trump's election rhetoric and even condemning it so far.
As for the Senate, I'm really pulling for Republicans to take those two seats in Georgia. Democrats controlling the House, Senate, AND White House would be awful. We already know what Democrats plan to do if they control they Senate since they've been pretty vocal about it. And I don't want to see a packed Supreme Court, the loss of the filibuster, and tons of gun control legislation rammed through.
Hannah, our freedoms are not taken away by senators, but by local police. And there is no gridlock in many cities and counties, to prevent police from locking up any innocent person, regardless of the law.